Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537–550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England’s and the Banco Central do Brasil’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.     

The effect of opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills in early childhood

We investigate the effect of having opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills of children in the United States at the onset of formal education. Our identification strategy rests on the assumption that, conditional on covariates, the sibling sex composition of the two firstborn children in a family is arguably exogenous. With regard to cognitive skills, learning skills and self-control measured in kindergarten, we find that boys benefit from having a sister, while there is no effect for girls. We also find evidence for the effect fading out as early as first grade.     

Trust,risk and time preferences: evidence from survey data

The paper shows that time preferences and risk preferences are key covariates of self-reported trust. They both predict negatively a measure of generalized trust; however, risk aversion is positively correlated with an index of particularized trusting behaviour (which refers to the circle of known people).     

Place the good after the bad: effects of emotional shifts on consumer memory

Marketing research has a limited understanding about the effects arising from emotional shifts (i.e., the transition from one emotion to another) during the same advertising message. This paper sheds light on this topic through two studies. Study 1 examines whether an advertising message that features a negative-to-positive emotional shift (i.e., a shift from a negative to a positive emotion) generates greater recall of an advertised brand than an advertising message with a neutral-to-positive emotional shift (i.e., a shift from a neutral to a positive emotion) or one with no emotional shift. Study 2 examines whether an advertising message that simulates a buyer-seller encounter—with the seller reproducing a negative-to-positive emotional shift via facial expressions—generates a greater recall of the advertised content than an identical advertisement with no emotional shift. Results confirm that a negative-to-positive shift facilitates the recall of both the brand and the advertised information.     

The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico

The existence of parallel economies that operate in the shadows of informality within most Latin American countries is widely recognized by the economic literature. However, its composition, size and effects on economic growth are still open questions. In this paper, we estimate the size and the evolution of the Mexican informal economy in the last three decades using a vector error correction model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables traditionally used in the currency demand approach, we include remittances given their relevance in the Mexican economic system. The results indicate that informality prior to the late 1980s accounted for at least two thirds of GDP, while stabilizing around one third of GDP in the last decade. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence of a positive long-run relationship between informality and economic growth.     

Globalisation and Poverty in Latin America: Some Channels and Some Evidence

This paper provides an overview of the main mechanisms through which globalisation can affect poverty and household welfare in Latin America and presents supporting evidence from different case studies in the region. One case study explores the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation in world markets on poverty in Argentina, with an emphasis on labour income effects via real wages. The second case study examines the impacts of CAFTA on net producers and net consumers among the indigenous population in Guatemala. The analysis explores short‐run impacts as well as medium‐run impacts as households adjust farm decisions. Finally, a last exercise is set up to study the role of agricultural liberalisation on wages, employment and unemployment when there are frictions in labour markets. These case studies show that the impacts of trade on developing countries are heterogeneous. In Argentina, there are gains from liberalisation of world agriculture and higher food prices. In Guatemala, instead, the indigenous population would benefit from lower food prices. It is clear that household adjustments and complementary factors are fundamental ingredients of any reasonable evaluation of the welfare impacts of trade reforms.     

An EC-framework for scientific research and technological innovation

Science and technology have come under the fire of critics over the last ten years or so, but the present situation of mankind will call for more, and not less, human ingenuity. A particular problem for Europe to master is the need to improve the channels for translating scientific achievements into competitive engineering and technology. It is a problem which can best be solved within a coherent policy framework, designed and implemented at Community level.

     

Farmland for tomorrow in densely populated areas

The paper describes the results of a research that aimed to come up with a well structured method to estimate future farmland requirements in densely populated areas. By using in depth interviews, scenario analysis and strategic orientation rounds, a method is developed to support policy optimization and to explore alternative future developments. The method is applied to the case of agriculture in the Flemish part of Belgium to show the feasibility of the model and to provide input for the discussion among policy makers in Flanders. The research results can be used by policy makers to build a new Spatial Plan Flanders for the period 2007–2013.     

Europe’s energy policy and the task ahead

The oil shock of 1973 and the subsequent world recession have drastically demonstrated the weakness of countries dependent on external energy supplies. In the following, Guido Brunner, the competent Member of the Commission of the European Communities, describes the changes we are facing in the energy field and what the Community is doing to face up to them.